LDU Quito vs Delfin Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 04, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
LDU Quito vs Delfin
Model pick: LDU Quito (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.06 – 0.67
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| LDU Quito | Delfin |
|---|
| League position | #6 (32 pts) | #15 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*LDU Quito shown at home, Delfin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
LDU Quito — last 5
DLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Delfin — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | LDU Quito (home) | Delfin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (0.8 / 0.7 goals per game) | 1-3-7 in 11 (0.5 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 48% |
| Top scorer | – | Xavier Ushina Goyes Kevin (3) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.06 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — LDU Quito or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Delfin or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| LDU Quito clean sheet | 51% |
| Delfin clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
LDU Quito is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. LDU Quito are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ LDU Quito vs Delfin — FAQ
Who will win LDU Quito vs Delfin?
Our statistical model makes LDU Quito the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: LDU Quito 65%, draw 22%, Delfin 14%.
Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Delfin?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in LDU Quito vs Delfin?
Expected goals are 2.06 for LDU Quito and 0.67 for Delfin — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in LDU Quito vs Delfin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for LDU Quito or draw is 89%.