LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa
Model pick: LDU Quito (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.12 – 0.78
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| LDU Quito | Mushuc Runa |
|---|
| League position | #5 (41 pts) | #9 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 46% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.2 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*LDU Quito shown at home, Mushuc Runa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
LDU Quito — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Mushuc Runa — last 5
LWWDD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | LDU Quito (home) | Mushuc Runa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-4 in 13 (0.9 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-4-6 in 13 (1.4 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Edmundo Carrillo Morales Ronie (9) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.12 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — LDU Quito or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Mushuc Runa or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| LDU Quito clean sheet | 46% |
| Mushuc Runa clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
LDU Quito is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. LDU Quito are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa — FAQ
Who will win LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa?
Our statistical model makes LDU Quito the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: LDU Quito 64%, draw 22%, Mushuc Runa 15%.
Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa?
Expected goals are 2.12 for LDU Quito and 0.78 for Mushuc Runa — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for LDU Quito or draw is 87%.