Le Havre vs Monaco Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (France) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 15:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Le Havre vs Monaco
Model pick: Monaco (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.8
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Le Havre | Monaco |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #21 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.2 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Le Havre shown at home, Monaco shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Le Havre — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Monaco — last 5
LDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Le Havre (home) | Monaco (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-1-2 in 4 (1.2 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% |
| Top scorer | – | Folarin Balogun (5) |
Ligue 1 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Ligue 1 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Le Havre or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Monaco or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 17% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Monaco is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Monaco edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Le Havre vs Monaco — FAQ
Who will win Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model makes Monaco the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Le Havre 27%, draw 25%, Monaco 48%.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Le Havre and 1.8 for Monaco — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Le Havre or draw is 48%.