Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo
Model pick: Puerto Nuevo (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.36 – 1.23
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 33%
Both teams score: 37%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Leandro N. Alem | Puerto Nuevo |
|---|
| League position | #11 (27 pts) | #8 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 42% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Leandro N. Alem shown at home, Puerto Nuevo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Leandro N. Alem — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Puerto Nuevo — last 5
DWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Leandro N. Alem (home) | Puerto Nuevo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-6-1 in 12 (0.8 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.82
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 27%
BTTS: 33%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.36 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (25%) |
| Double chance — Leandro N. Alem or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Puerto Nuevo or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Leandro N. Alem clean sheet | 29% |
| Puerto Nuevo clean sheet | 70% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Puerto Nuevo is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Puerto Nuevo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (67% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo — FAQ
Who will win Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo?
Our statistical model makes Puerto Nuevo the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Leandro N. Alem 13%, draw 32%, Puerto Nuevo 55%.
Will both teams score in Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo?
The model gives a 37% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo?
Expected goals are 0.36 for Leandro N. Alem and 1.23 for Puerto Nuevo — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (25%). Double chance for Leandro N. Alem or draw is 41%.