Lecce vs Roma Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Lecce vs Roma
Model pick: Roma (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.57
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lecce | Roma |
|---|
| League position | #3 (3 pts) | #8 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Lecce shown at home, Roma shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lecce — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Roma — last 5
LWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lecce (home) | Roma (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 3-1-0 in 4 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% |
| Top scorer | – | Lorenzo Pellegrini (3) |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.8 vs 1.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Lecce or draw (1X) | 44% |
| Double chance — Roma or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 21% |
| Roma clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Roma is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, Roma edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Lecce vs Roma — FAQ
Who will win Lecce vs Roma?
Our statistical model makes Roma the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Lecce 16%, draw 25%, Roma 59%.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Roma?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lecce vs Roma?
Expected goals are 0.8 for Lecce and 1.57 for Roma — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lecce vs Roma?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Lecce or draw is 44%.