Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw
Model pick: Lech Poznań II (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.28 – 2.78
Total goals: 6.1
Over 2.5: 83%
Both teams score: 76%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lech Poznań II | Grom Nowy Staw |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 2.6 |
*Lech Poznań II shown at home, Grom Nowy Staw shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lech Poznań II — last 5
DWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Grom Nowy Staw — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lech Poznań II (home) | Grom Nowy Staw (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 33% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.28 vs 2.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-2 (5%) |
| Double chance — Lech Poznań II or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Grom Nowy Staw or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Lech Poznań II clean sheet | 6% |
| Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet | 4% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lech Poznań II is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Lech Poznań II are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.1, this shapes as an open game (83% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw — FAQ
Who will win Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw?
Our statistical model makes Lech Poznań II the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Lech Poznań II 47%, draw 18%, Grom Nowy Staw 34%.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw?
The model gives a 76% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw?
Expected goals are 3.28 for Lech Poznań II and 2.78 for Grom Nowy Staw — about 6.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lech Poznań II vs Grom Nowy Staw?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-2 (5%). Double chance for Lech Poznań II or draw is 66%.