Leek vs Emley Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Leek vs Emley
Model pick: Emley (71%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.42 – 2.03
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Leek | Emley |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
*Leek shown at home, Emley shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Leek — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Emley — last 5
DLDL
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Leek (home) | Emley (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.42 vs 2.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (18%) |
| Double chance — Leek or draw (1X) | 24% |
| Double chance — Emley or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Leek clean sheet | 13% |
| Emley clean sheet | 66% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Emley is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Despite playing away, Emley edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Leek vs Emley — FAQ
Who will win Leek vs Emley?
Our statistical model makes Emley the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Leek 9%, draw 20%, Emley 71%.
Will both teams score in Leek vs Emley?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Leek vs Emley?
Expected goals are 0.42 for Leek and 2.03 for Emley — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Leek vs Emley?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (18%). Double chance for Leek or draw is 24%.