Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław
Model pick: Legia Warszawa (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Legia Warszawa | Śląsk Wrocław |
|---|
| League position | #28 (6 pts) | #11 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Legia Warszawa shown at home, Śląsk Wrocław shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Legia Warszawa — last 5
WDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Śląsk Wrocław — last 5
LWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Legia Warszawa (home) | Śląsk Wrocław (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 45% |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Legia Warszawa or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Śląsk Wrocław or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Legia Warszawa clean sheet | 41% |
| Śląsk Wrocław clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Legia Warszawa is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Legia Warszawa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław — FAQ
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław?
Our statistical model makes Legia Warszawa the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Legia Warszawa 57%, draw 24%, Śląsk Wrocław 19%.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Legia Warszawa and 0.9 for Śląsk Wrocław — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Legia Warszawa vs Śląsk Wrocław?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Legia Warszawa or draw is 80%.