Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom
Model pick: Legia Warszawa (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.87 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Legia Warszawa | Radomiak Radom |
|---|
| League position | #28 (6 pts) | #12 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Legia Warszawa shown at home, Radomiak Radom shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Legia Warszawa — last 5
LWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Radomiak Radom — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Legia Warszawa (home) | Radomiak Radom (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Abdoul Tapsoba (6) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.87 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Legia Warszawa or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Radomiak Radom or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Legia Warszawa clean sheet | 37% |
| Radomiak Radom clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Legia Warszawa is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Legia Warszawa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom — FAQ
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model makes Legia Warszawa the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Legia Warszawa 58%, draw 23%, Radomiak Radom 19%.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Expected goals are 1.87 for Legia Warszawa and 1.0 for Radomiak Radom — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Legia Warszawa or draw is 80%.