Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin
Model pick: Legia Warszawa (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Legia Warszawa | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|
| League position | #28 (6 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Legia Warszawa shown at home, Zagłębie Lubin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Legia Warszawa — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Zagłębie Lubin — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Legia Warszawa (home) | Zagłębie Lubin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Legia Warszawa or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Lubin or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Legia Warszawa clean sheet | 41% |
| Zagłębie Lubin clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Legia Warszawa is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Legia Warszawa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin — FAQ
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Our statistical model makes Legia Warszawa the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Legia Warszawa 57%, draw 25%, Zagłębie Lubin 19%.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Legia Warszawa and 0.88 for Zagłębie Lubin — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Legia Warszawa or draw is 80%.