Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction & Preview
League One (England) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (ENGLAND)
Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle
Model pick: Plymouth Argyle (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.67
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Leicester City | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|
| League position | #23 (46 pts) | #22 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Leicester City shown at home, Plymouth Argyle shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Leicester City — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Plymouth Argyle — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Leicester City (home) | Plymouth Argyle (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 48% |
| Top scorer | – | Lorent Tolaj (16) |
League One (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League One (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 1.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Leicester City or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Plymouth Argyle or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Leicester City clean sheet | 19% |
| Plymouth Argyle clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Plymouth Argyle is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Plymouth Argyle edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle — FAQ
Who will win Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle?
Our statistical model makes Plymouth Argyle the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Leicester City 24%, draw 26%, Plymouth Argyle 50%.
Will both teams score in Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Leicester City and 1.67 for Plymouth Argyle — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Leicester City or draw is 47%.