Leixões vs Tondela Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Leixões vs Tondela
Model pick: Tondela (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.42
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Leixões | Tondela |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #17 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Leixões shown at home, Tondela shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Leixões — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Tondela — last 5
LLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Leixões (home) | Tondela (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 46% |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Leixões or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Tondela or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Leixões clean sheet | 24% |
| Tondela clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tondela is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Tondela edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Leixões vs Tondela — FAQ
Who will win Leixões vs Tondela?
Our statistical model makes Tondela the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Leixões 29%, draw 28%, Tondela 43%.
Will both teams score in Leixões vs Tondela?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Leixões vs Tondela?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Leixões and 1.42 for Tondela — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Leixões vs Tondela?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Leixões or draw is 55%.