Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle
Model pick: Independiente del Valle (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
42%
Independiente del Valle
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Leones del Norte | Independiente del Valle |
|---|
| League position | #7 (35 pts) | #1 (64 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 2.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 92% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Leones del Norte shown at home, Independiente del Valle shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Leones del Norte — last 5
DLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Independiente del Valle — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Leones del Norte (home) | Independiente del Valle (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-5-2 in 12 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 11-0-1 in 12 (2.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 49% |
| Top scorer | – | Carlos Gonzalez (6) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Leones del Norte or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Independiente del Valle or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Leones del Norte clean sheet | 28% |
| Independiente del Valle clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Independiente del Valle is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Independiente del Valle edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle — FAQ
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Our statistical model makes Independiente del Valle the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Leones del Norte 30%, draw 29%, Independiente del Valle 42%.
Will both teams score in Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Leones del Norte and 1.29 for Independiente del Valle — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Leones del Norte or draw is 57%.