Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Model pick: Levski Sofia (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Levski Sofia | CSKA 1948 Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #1 (18 pts) | #4 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.2 / 0.2 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Levski Sofia shown at home, CSKA 1948 Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Levski Sofia — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 59% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
CSKA 1948 Sofia — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Levski Sofia (home) | CSKA 1948 Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (3.2 / 0.2 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 59% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 45% |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Levski Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Levski Sofia 56%, draw 25%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 19%.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Levski Sofia and 0.79 for CSKA 1948 Sofia — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Levski Sofia or draw is 82%.