Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Model pick: Levski Sofia (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.88 – 0.62
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Levski Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #1 (9 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 0.5 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
*Levski Sofia shown at home, Lokomotiv Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Levski Sofia — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 58% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Levski Sofia (home) | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 58% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.88 vs 0.62):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 54% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Levski Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Levski Sofia 63%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14%.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 1.88 for Levski Sofia and 0.62 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Levski Sofia or draw is 89%.