Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
Model pick: Levski Sofia (76%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.65 – 0.54
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Levski Sofia | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #2 (3 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Levski Sofia shown at home, Septemvri Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Levski Sofia — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 58% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Septemvri Sofia — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Levski Sofia (home) | Septemvri Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 58% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.65 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Septemvri Sofia or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 58% |
| Septemvri Sofia clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
76%. Levski Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 76%. Full probabilities: Levski Sofia 76%, draw 16%, Septemvri Sofia 7%.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Expected goals are 2.65 for Levski Sofia and 0.54 for Septemvri Sofia — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Levski Sofia or draw is 95%.