Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Model pick: Levski Sofia (74%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.55 – 0.62
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Levski Sofia | Spartak Varna |
|---|
| League position | #4 (12 pts) | #7 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.3 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 3.0 / 1.6 |
*Levski Sofia shown at home, Spartak Varna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Levski Sofia — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 58% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Spartak Varna — last 5
WDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Levski Sofia (home) | Spartak Varna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.3 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 58% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Georg Stojanovski (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.55 vs 0.62):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (1X) | 93% |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (X2) | 21% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 54% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
74%. Levski Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna — FAQ
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 74%. Full probabilities: Levski Sofia 74%, draw 17%, Spartak Varna 9%.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Expected goals are 2.55 for Levski Sofia and 0.62 for Spartak Varna — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Levski Sofia or draw is 93%.