Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye
Model pick: Henan Jianye (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Liaoning Tieren | Henan Jianye |
|---|
| League position | #12 (24 pts) | #13 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Liaoning Tieren shown at home, Henan Jianye shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Liaoning Tieren — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Henan Jianye — last 5
DWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Liaoning Tieren (home) | Henan Jianye (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-6 in 12 (1.6 / 1.5 goals per game) | 4-2-5 in 11 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Nazario Bruno (8) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Liaoning Tieren or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Henan Jianye or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Liaoning Tieren clean sheet | 32% |
| Henan Jianye clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Henan Jianye is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Henan Jianye edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye — FAQ
Who will win Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model makes Henan Jianye the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Liaoning Tieren 36%, draw 27%, Henan Jianye 37%.
Will both teams score in Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Liaoning Tieren and 1.15 for Henan Jianye — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Liaoning Tieren vs Henan Jianye?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Liaoning Tieren or draw is 70%.