Libertad vs Macará Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Libertad vs Macará
Model pick: Libertad (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Libertad | Macará |
|---|
| League position | #7 (33 pts) | #2 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 42% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Libertad shown at home, Macará shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Libertad — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Macará — last 5
LWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Libertad (home) | Macará (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-3 in 12 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Franco Posse (6) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Libertad or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Macará or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 34% |
| Macará clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Libertad is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Libertad are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Libertad vs Macará — FAQ
Who will win Libertad vs Macará?
Our statistical model makes Libertad the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Libertad 40%, draw 28%, Macará 32%.
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Macará?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Libertad vs Macará?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Libertad and 1.09 for Macará — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Libertad vs Macará?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Libertad or draw is 69%.