Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Model pick: Libertad (69%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 0.41
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Libertad | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|
| League position | #4 (175 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Libertad shown at home, Sportivo San Lorenzo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Libertad — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Libertad (home) | Sportivo San Lorenzo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Lorenzo Melgarejo (4) | – |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 0.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Libertad or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 66% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Libertad is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Libertad are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo — FAQ
Who will win Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Our statistical model makes Libertad the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Libertad 69%, draw 21%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 11%.
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Libertad and 0.41 for Sportivo San Lorenzo — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Libertad vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (18%). Double chance for Libertad or draw is 94%.