Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Model pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
56%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Expected goals: 2.28 – 3.39
Total goals: 5.7
Over 2.5: 80%
Both teams score: 73%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lidzbark Warminski | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.8 | 2.6 / 1.8 |
*Lidzbark Warminski shown at home, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lidzbark Warminski — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lidzbark Warminski (home) | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.28 vs 3.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-3 (6%) |
| Double chance — Lidzbark Warminski or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Lidzbark Warminski clean sheet | 3% |
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.7, this shapes as an open game (80% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki — FAQ
Who will win Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
Our statistical model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Lidzbark Warminski 26%, draw 18%, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 56%.
Will both teams score in Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
The model gives a 73% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
Expected goals are 2.28 for Lidzbark Warminski and 3.39 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki — about 5.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lidzbark Warminski vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-3 (6%). Double chance for Lidzbark Warminski or draw is 40%.