Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów
Model pick: Lidzbark Warminski (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.49 – 1.35
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lidzbark Warminski | Olimpia Zambrów |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.67 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Lidzbark Warminski shown at home, Olimpia Zambrów shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lidzbark Warminski — last 5
LLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Zambrów — last 5
LDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lidzbark Warminski (home) | Olimpia Zambrów (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 58% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.49 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Lidzbark Warminski or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Zambrów or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Lidzbark Warminski clean sheet | 26% |
| Olimpia Zambrów clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lidzbark Warminski is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Lidzbark Warminski are backed at home, where they average 0.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów — FAQ
Who will win Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów?
Our statistical model makes Lidzbark Warminski the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Lidzbark Warminski 58%, draw 20%, Olimpia Zambrów 22%.
Will both teams score in Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów?
Expected goals are 2.49 for Lidzbark Warminski and 1.35 for Olimpia Zambrów — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lidzbark Warminski vs Olimpia Zambrów?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Lidzbark Warminski or draw is 81%.