Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II
Model pick: Plock II (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.5 – 0.96
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 31%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lidzbark Warminski | Plock II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.67 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Lidzbark Warminski shown at home, Plock II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lidzbark Warminski — last 5
LLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Plock II — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lidzbark Warminski (home) | Plock II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.5 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Lidzbark Warminski or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Plock II or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Lidzbark Warminski clean sheet | 38% |
| Plock II clean sheet | 61% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Plock II is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Plock II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (69% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II — FAQ
Who will win Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II?
Our statistical model makes Plock II the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Lidzbark Warminski 21%, draw 36%, Plock II 44%.
Will both teams score in Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II?
Expected goals are 0.5 for Lidzbark Warminski and 0.96 for Plock II — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lidzbark Warminski vs Plock II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (23%). Double chance for Lidzbark Warminski or draw is 54%.