Lillestrøm vs Egnatia Prediction & Preview
UEFA Europa League (Europe) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Lillestrøm vs Egnatia
Model pick: Lillestrøm (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.1 – 0.06
Total goals: 0.2
Over 2.5: 2%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lillestrøm | Egnatia |
|---|
| League position | #5 (26 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.4 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Lillestrøm shown at home, Egnatia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lillestrøm — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Egnatia — last 5
DLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lillestrøm (home) | Egnatia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-4 in 8 (1.8 / 1.4 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
UEFA Europa League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 41%
Use these UEFA Europa League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.1 vs 0.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (85%) |
| Double chance — Lillestrøm or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Egnatia or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 14% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Lillestrøm clean sheet | 94% |
| Egnatia clean sheet | 90% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lillestrøm is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Lillestrøm are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (98% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lillestrøm vs Egnatia — FAQ
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Egnatia?
Our statistical model makes Lillestrøm the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Lillestrøm 46%, draw 42%, Egnatia 12%.
Will both teams score in Lillestrøm vs Egnatia?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lillestrøm vs Egnatia?
Expected goals are 0.1 for Lillestrøm and 0.06 for Egnatia — about 0.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lillestrøm vs Egnatia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (85%). Double chance for Lillestrøm or draw is 95%.