Lipno Steszew vs Sroda Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Lipno Steszew vs Sroda
Model pick: Sroda (86%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.36 – 3.15
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lipno Steszew | Sroda |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Lipno Steszew shown at home, Sroda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lipno Steszew — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Sroda — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lipno Steszew (home) | Sroda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.36 vs 3.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (16%) |
| Double chance — Lipno Steszew or draw (1X) | 10% |
| Double chance — Sroda or draw (X2) | 98% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Lipno Steszew clean sheet | 4% |
| Sroda clean sheet | 70% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sroda is the model's most likely outcome at
86%. Despite playing away, Sroda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lipno Steszew vs Sroda — FAQ
Who will win Lipno Steszew vs Sroda?
Our statistical model makes Sroda the most likely result at 86%. Full probabilities: Lipno Steszew 4%, draw 10%, Sroda 86%.
Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Sroda?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lipno Steszew vs Sroda?
Expected goals are 0.36 for Lipno Steszew and 3.15 for Sroda — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lipno Steszew vs Sroda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (16%). Double chance for Lipno Steszew or draw is 10%.