Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie
Model pick: Swinoujscie (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lipno Steszew | Swinoujscie |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.4 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Lipno Steszew shown at home, Swinoujscie shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lipno Steszew — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Swinoujscie — last 5
WWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lipno Steszew (home) | Swinoujscie (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Lipno Steszew or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Swinoujscie or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Lipno Steszew clean sheet | 22% |
| Swinoujscie clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Swinoujscie is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Swinoujscie edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie — FAQ
Who will win Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie?
Our statistical model makes Swinoujscie the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Lipno Steszew 30%, draw 27%, Swinoujscie 44%.
Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Lipno Steszew and 1.5 for Swinoujscie — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lipno Steszew vs Swinoujscie?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Lipno Steszew or draw is 54%.