Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction & Preview
PL · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Model pick: Liverpool (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.14 – 0.91
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Liverpool | Nottingham Forest |
|---|
| League position | #9 (1 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Liverpool shown at home, Nottingham Forest shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Liverpool — last 5
WLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Nottingham Forest — last 5
LLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Liverpool (home) | Nottingham Forest (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Dominik Szoboszlai (5) | Jesus Igor (7) |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.14 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Liverpool or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Nottingham Forest or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 40% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Liverpool is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Liverpool are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest — FAQ
Who will win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model makes Liverpool the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Liverpool 63%, draw 21%, Nottingham Forest 16%.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Expected goals are 2.14 for Liverpool and 0.91 for Nottingham Forest — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Liverpool or draw is 85%.