Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic
Model pick: Livingston (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Livingston | Dunfermline Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #5 (3 pts) | #6 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
*Livingston shown at home, Dunfermline Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Livingston — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Dunfermline Athletic — last 5
WWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Livingston (home) | Dunfermline Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Scott Pittman (5) | – |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Livingston or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Dunfermline Athletic or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Livingston clean sheet | 52% |
| Dunfermline Athletic clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Livingston is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Livingston are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Our statistical model makes Livingston the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Livingston 52%, draw 27%, Dunfermline Athletic 21%.
Will both teams score in Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Livingston and 0.65 for Dunfermline Athletic — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Livingston vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Livingston or draw is 83%.