Livingston vs Stenhousemuir Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Livingston vs Stenhousemuir
Model pick: Livingston (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 0.66
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Livingston | Stenhousemuir |
|---|
| League position | #5 (6 pts) | #1 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
*Livingston shown at home, Stenhousemuir shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Livingston — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Stenhousemuir — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Livingston (home) | Stenhousemuir (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Scott Pittman (5) | – |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Livingston or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Stenhousemuir or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Livingston clean sheet | 52% |
| Stenhousemuir clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Livingston is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Livingston are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Livingston vs Stenhousemuir — FAQ
Who will win Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
Our statistical model makes Livingston the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Livingston 61%, draw 24%, Stenhousemuir 15%.
Will both teams score in Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Livingston and 0.66 for Stenhousemuir — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Livingston or draw is 81%.