Livorno vs Atalanta II Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Livorno vs Atalanta II
Model pick: Atalanta II (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Livorno | Atalanta II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Livorno shown at home, Atalanta II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Livorno — last 5
WDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Atalanta II — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Livorno (home) | Atalanta II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.27 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Livorno or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Atalanta II or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Livorno clean sheet | 22% |
| Atalanta II clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atalanta II is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Atalanta II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Livorno vs Atalanta II — FAQ
Who will win Livorno vs Atalanta II?
Our statistical model makes Atalanta II the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Livorno 32%, draw 26%, Atalanta II 42%.
Will both teams score in Livorno vs Atalanta II?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Livorno vs Atalanta II?
Expected goals are 1.27 for Livorno and 1.53 for Atalanta II — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Livorno vs Atalanta II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Livorno or draw is 57%.