Ljungskile vs Norrby Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Ljungskile vs Norrby
Model pick: Ljungskile (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ljungskile | Norrby |
|---|
| League position | #13 (21 pts) | #11 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Ljungskile shown at home, Norrby shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ljungskile — last 5
LLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Norrby — last 5
WLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ljungskile (home) | Norrby (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-7 in 11 (1.1 / 1.6 goals per game) | 1-6-4 in 11 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Filip Ambroz (1) | – |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Ljungskile or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Norrby or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Ljungskile clean sheet | 28% |
| Norrby clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ljungskile is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Ljungskile are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ljungskile vs Norrby — FAQ
Who will win Ljungskile vs Norrby?
Our statistical model makes Ljungskile the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Ljungskile 45%, draw 26%, Norrby 29%.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile vs Norrby?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ljungskile vs Norrby?
Expected goals are 1.38 for Ljungskile and 1.27 for Norrby — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ljungskile vs Norrby?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Ljungskile or draw is 66%.