Ljungskile vs Värnamo Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Ljungskile vs Värnamo
Model pick: Värnamo (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 1.67
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ljungskile | Värnamo |
|---|
| League position | #13 (20 pts) | #14 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Ljungskile shown at home, Värnamo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ljungskile — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Värnamo — last 5
DWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ljungskile (home) | Värnamo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-6 in 10 (1.2 / 1.7 goals per game) | 3-0-7 in 10 (1.2 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Filip Ambroz (1) | Axel Bjornstrom (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 1.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Ljungskile or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Ljungskile clean sheet | 19% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Värnamo is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Värnamo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ljungskile vs Värnamo — FAQ
Who will win Ljungskile vs Värnamo?
Our statistical model makes Värnamo the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Ljungskile 35%, draw 25%, Värnamo 40%.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile vs Värnamo?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ljungskile vs Värnamo?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Ljungskile and 1.67 for Värnamo — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ljungskile vs Värnamo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Ljungskile or draw is 59%.