LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II
Model pick: Jagiellonia II (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.91
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| LKS Lomza | Jagiellonia II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*LKS Lomza shown at home, Jagiellonia II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
LKS Lomza — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Jagiellonia II — last 5
DDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | LKS Lomza (home) | Jagiellonia II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 1.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — LKS Lomza or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia II or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| LKS Lomza clean sheet | 15% |
| Jagiellonia II clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jagiellonia II is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, Jagiellonia II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II — FAQ
Who will win LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II?
Our statistical model makes Jagiellonia II the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: LKS Lomza 20%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia II 56%.
Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II?
Expected goals are 0.95 for LKS Lomza and 1.91 for Jagiellonia II — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in LKS Lomza vs Jagiellonia II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (11%). Double chance for LKS Lomza or draw is 40%.