LKS Lomza vs Mlawa Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
LKS Lomza vs Mlawa
Model pick: LKS Lomza (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.54 – 2.37
Total goals: 6.9
Over 2.5: 86%
Both teams score: 75%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| LKS Lomza | Mlawa |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.6 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*LKS Lomza shown at home, Mlawa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
LKS Lomza — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Mlawa — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | LKS Lomza (home) | Mlawa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.54 vs 2.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-2 (5%) |
| Double chance — LKS Lomza or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Mlawa or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| LKS Lomza clean sheet | 9% |
| Mlawa clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
LKS Lomza is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. LKS Lomza are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.9, this shapes as an open game (86% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ LKS Lomza vs Mlawa — FAQ
Who will win LKS Lomza vs Mlawa?
Our statistical model makes LKS Lomza the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: LKS Lomza 68%, draw 14%, Mlawa 18%.
Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Mlawa?
The model gives a 75% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in LKS Lomza vs Mlawa?
Expected goals are 4.54 for LKS Lomza and 2.37 for Mlawa — about 6.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in LKS Lomza vs Mlawa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-2 (5%). Double chance for LKS Lomza or draw is 84%.