Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima
Model pick: Deportes Tolima (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Llaneros | Deportes Tolima |
|---|
| League position | #14 (22 pts) | #3 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Llaneros shown at home, Deportes Tolima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Llaneros — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportes Tolima — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Llaneros (home) | Deportes Tolima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Vasquez Jhon (4) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Llaneros or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Deportes Tolima or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Llaneros clean sheet | 28% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportes Tolima is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Deportes Tolima edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima — FAQ
Who will win Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima?
Our statistical model makes Deportes Tolima the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Llaneros 30%, draw 29%, Deportes Tolima 41%.
Will both teams score in Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Llaneros and 1.26 for Deportes Tolima — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Llaneros or draw is 57%.