Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More
Model pick: Cherno More (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cherno More |
|---|
| League position | #13 (3 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Lokomotiv Plovdiv shown at home, Cherno More shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Cherno More — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (home) | Cherno More (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.8 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Mascote (7) | Georgi Lazarov (5) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.92 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet | 34% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cherno More is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Cherno More edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More — FAQ
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
Our statistical model makes Cherno More the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 31%, draw 31%, Cherno More 38%.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
Expected goals are 0.92 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.08 for Cherno More — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw is 61%.