Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav
Model pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Dunav |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Lokomotiv Plovdiv shown at home, Dunav shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Dunav — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (home) | Dunav (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Mascote (7) | – |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet | 48% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Lokomotiv Plovdiv are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav — FAQ
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav?
Our statistical model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 52%, draw 28%, Dunav 21%.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.74 for Dunav — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw is 81%.