Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.82 – 1.74
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 | CSKA Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #11 (2 pts) | #2 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.5 | 1.5 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 2.8 / 0.8 |
*Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 shown at home, CSKA Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — last 5
DDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
CSKA Sofia — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 48% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 (home) | CSKA Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 48% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 36% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.82 vs 1.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 clean sheet | 18% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, CSKA Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 20%, draw 25%, CSKA Sofia 55%.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.82 for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 and 1.74 for CSKA Sofia — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs CSKA Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 or draw is 41%.