Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia
Model pick: Levski Sofia (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.82 – 1.93
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 | Levski Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #8 (1 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
*Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 shown at home, Levski Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — last 5
WLDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Levski Sofia — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 41% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 (home) | Levski Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 41% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.82 vs 1.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 or draw (1X) | 37% |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 clean sheet | 15% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, Levski Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 18%, draw 23%, Levski Sofia 59%.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.82 for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 and 1.93 for Levski Sofia — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Levski Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 or draw is 37%.