Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction & Preview
Pro League (Belgium) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 17:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRO LEAGUE (BELGIUM)
Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi
Model pick: Sporting Charleroi (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lommel | Sporting Charleroi |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #3 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Lommel shown at home, Sporting Charleroi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lommel — last 5
DLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Sporting Charleroi — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lommel (home) | Sporting Charleroi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Aurelien Scheidler (9) |
Pro League (Belgium) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Pro League (Belgium) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Lommel or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Sporting Charleroi or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Lommel clean sheet | 34% |
| Sporting Charleroi clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sporting Charleroi is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Sporting Charleroi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi — FAQ
Who will win Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi?
Our statistical model makes Sporting Charleroi the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Lommel 35%, draw 28%, Sporting Charleroi 37%.
Will both teams score in Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Lommel and 1.08 for Sporting Charleroi — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lommel vs Sporting Charleroi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Lommel or draw is 72%.