Londrina vs Novorizontino Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Londrina vs Novorizontino
Model pick: Novorizontino (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.94 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Londrina | Novorizontino |
|---|
| League position | #16 (20 pts) | #6 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Londrina shown at home, Novorizontino shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Londrina — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Novorizontino — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Londrina (home) | Novorizontino (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.6 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-4-3 in 10 (1.4 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 32% |
| Top scorer | Santos Bruno (10) | Robson (6) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.94 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Londrina or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Novorizontino or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Londrina clean sheet | 33% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novorizontino is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Novorizontino edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Londrina vs Novorizontino — FAQ
Who will win Londrina vs Novorizontino?
Our statistical model makes Novorizontino the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Londrina 31%, draw 31%, Novorizontino 38%.
Will both teams score in Londrina vs Novorizontino?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Londrina vs Novorizontino?
Expected goals are 0.94 for Londrina and 1.1 for Novorizontino — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Londrina vs Novorizontino?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Londrina or draw is 61%.