Los Angeles vs New York RB Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Los Angeles vs New York RB
Model pick: Los Angeles (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.87 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Los Angeles | New York RB |
|---|
| League position | #3 (27 pts) | #5 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Los Angeles shown at home, New York RB shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Los Angeles — last 5
WLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
New York RB — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Los Angeles (home) | New York RB (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-2 in 8 (1.9 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.5 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (16) | Julian Hall (9) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.87 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Los Angeles or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — New York RB or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Los Angeles clean sheet | 38% |
| New York RB clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Los Angeles is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Los Angeles are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Los Angeles vs New York RB — FAQ
Who will win Los Angeles vs New York RB?
Our statistical model makes Los Angeles the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Los Angeles 55%, draw 24%, New York RB 21%.
Will both teams score in Los Angeles vs New York RB?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Los Angeles vs New York RB?
Expected goals are 1.87 for Los Angeles and 0.97 for New York RB — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Los Angeles vs New York RB?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Los Angeles or draw is 81%.