Los Angeles vs San Diego FC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Los Angeles vs San Diego FC
Model pick: Los Angeles (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Los Angeles | San Diego FC |
|---|
| League position | #3 (27 pts) | #12 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Los Angeles shown at home, San Diego FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Los Angeles — last 5
WWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
San Diego FC — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 71% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Los Angeles (home) | San Diego FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-2 in 8 (1.9 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-2-3 in 6 (1.2 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 71% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (13) | Petar Musa (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Los Angeles or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — San Diego FC or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Los Angeles clean sheet | 33% |
| San Diego FC clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Los Angeles is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Los Angeles are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Los Angeles vs San Diego FC — FAQ
Who will win Los Angeles vs San Diego FC?
Our statistical model makes Los Angeles the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Los Angeles 56%, draw 23%, San Diego FC 22%.
Will both teams score in Los Angeles vs San Diego FC?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Los Angeles vs San Diego FC?
Expected goals are 1.7 for Los Angeles and 1.1 for San Diego FC — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Los Angeles vs San Diego FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Los Angeles or draw is 75%.