Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos
Model pick: Los Chankas (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.78 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Los Chankas | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|
| League position | #2 (37 pts) | #9 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Los Chankas shown at home, Comerciantes Unidos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Los Chankas — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Comerciantes Unidos — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Los Chankas (home) | Comerciantes Unidos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Franco Torres (6) | Matias Sen (6) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.78 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Los Chankas or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Comerciantes Unidos or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Los Chankas clean sheet | 38% |
| Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Los Chankas is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Los Chankas are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos — FAQ
Who will win Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our statistical model makes Los Chankas the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Los Chankas 53%, draw 25%, Comerciantes Unidos 22%.
Will both teams score in Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Expected goals are 1.78 for Los Chankas and 0.96 for Comerciantes Unidos — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Los Chankas or draw is 80%.