Loudoun vs New Mexico Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Loudoun vs New Mexico
Model pick: New Mexico (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.55 – 1.49
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Loudoun | New Mexico |
|---|
| League position | #10 (19 pts) | #2 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 9% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.4 | 2.6 / 0.6 |
*Loudoun shown at home, New Mexico shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Loudoun — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
New Mexico — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Loudoun (home) | New Mexico (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-7-3 in 11 (1.4 / 1.6 goals per game) | 4-1-3 in 8 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 67% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.55 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Loudoun or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — New Mexico or draw (X2) | 86% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Loudoun clean sheet | 23% |
| New Mexico clean sheet | 58% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New Mexico is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, New Mexico edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Loudoun vs New Mexico — FAQ
Who will win Loudoun vs New Mexico?
Our statistical model makes New Mexico the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Loudoun 33%, draw 27%, New Mexico 40%.
Will both teams score in Loudoun vs New Mexico?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Loudoun vs New Mexico?
Expected goals are 0.55 for Loudoun and 1.49 for New Mexico — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Loudoun vs New Mexico?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Loudoun or draw is 40%.