Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II
Model pick: Holstein Kiel II (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.5 – 4.42
Total goals: 4.9
Over 2.5: 74%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lubeck II | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.8 | 3.0 / 1.4 |
*Lubeck II shown at home, Holstein Kiel II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lubeck II — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Holstein Kiel II — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lubeck II (home) | Holstein Kiel II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.5 vs 4.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-4 (12%) |
| Double chance — Lubeck II or draw (1X) | 5% |
| Double chance — Holstein Kiel II or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Lubeck II clean sheet | 1% |
| Holstein Kiel II clean sheet | 61% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Holstein Kiel II is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Despite playing away, Holstein Kiel II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.9, this shapes as an open game (74% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II — FAQ
Who will win Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II?
Our statistical model makes Holstein Kiel II the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Lubeck II 2%, draw 6%, Holstein Kiel II 92%.
Will both teams score in Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II?
Expected goals are 0.5 for Lubeck II and 4.42 for Holstein Kiel II — about 4.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lubeck II vs Holstein Kiel II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-4 (12%). Double chance for Lubeck II or draw is 5%.