Luckenwalde vs Erfurt Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Luckenwalde vs Erfurt
Model pick: Erfurt (94%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.41 – 4.75
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 76%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Luckenwalde | Erfurt |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 3.4 / 0.8 |
*Luckenwalde shown at home, Erfurt shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Luckenwalde — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Erfurt — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Luckenwalde (home) | Erfurt (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 65%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.41 vs 4.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-4 (13%) |
| Double chance — Luckenwalde or draw (1X) | 3% |
| Double chance — Erfurt or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Luckenwalde clean sheet | 1% |
| Erfurt clean sheet | 66% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Erfurt is the model's most likely outcome at
94%. Despite playing away, Erfurt edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (76% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Luckenwalde vs Erfurt — FAQ
Who will win Luckenwalde vs Erfurt?
Our statistical model makes Erfurt the most likely result at 94%. Full probabilities: Luckenwalde 1%, draw 4%, Erfurt 94%.
Will both teams score in Luckenwalde vs Erfurt?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Luckenwalde vs Erfurt?
Expected goals are 0.41 for Luckenwalde and 4.75 for Erfurt — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Luckenwalde vs Erfurt?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-4 (13%). Double chance for Luckenwalde or draw is 3%.