Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna Prediction & Preview
V AFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
V AFG (BULGARIA)
Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna
Model pick: Ludogorets III (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.44 – 1.99
Total goals: 4.4
Over 2.5: 71%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ludogorets III | Olympic Varna |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 |
*Ludogorets III shown at home, Olympic Varna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ludogorets III — last 5
W
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Olympic Varna — last 5
W
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ludogorets III (home) | Olympic Varna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
V AFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.08
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 60%
Use these V AFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.44 vs 1.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Ludogorets III or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Olympic Varna or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Ludogorets III clean sheet | 14% |
| Olympic Varna clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets III is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Ludogorets III are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.4, this shapes as an open game (71% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna — FAQ
Who will win Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets III the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Ludogorets III 46%, draw 21%, Olympic Varna 33%.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna?
Expected goals are 2.44 for Ludogorets III and 1.99 for Olympic Varna — about 4.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ludogorets III vs Olympic Varna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (7%). Double chance for Ludogorets III or draw is 68%.