Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv
Model pick: Ludogorets (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.25 – 0.71
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ludogorets | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #2 (12 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Ludogorets shown at home, Botev Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ludogorets — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ludogorets (home) | Botev Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 50% |
| Top scorer | – | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.25 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 49% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Ludogorets are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Ludogorets 63%, draw 22%, Botev Plovdiv 15%.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 2.25 for Ludogorets and 0.71 for Botev Plovdiv — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Ludogorets or draw is 90%.