Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa
Model pick: Ludogorets (75%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.51 – 0.47
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ludogorets | Botev Vratsa |
|---|
| League position | #3 (3 pts) | #9 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Ludogorets shown at home, Botev Vratsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ludogorets — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 54% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Vratsa — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ludogorets (home) | Botev Vratsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 54% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Martin Petkov (4) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.51 vs 0.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Botev Vratsa or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 63% |
| Botev Vratsa clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets is the model's most likely outcome at
75%. Ludogorets are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa — FAQ
Who will win Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets the most likely result at 75%. Full probabilities: Ludogorets 75%, draw 17%, Botev Vratsa 8%.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa?
Expected goals are 2.51 for Ludogorets and 0.47 for Botev Vratsa — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (16%). Double chance for Ludogorets or draw is 95%.